At a conference in Shanghai on March 25, 1959, Mao Zedong, Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party announced:
“To distribute resources evenly will only ruin the ‘Great Leap Forward.’ When there is not enough to eat, people starve to death. It is better to let half the people die so that the other half can eat their fill.”
His words were proof that Mao knew of and condoned mass starvation in the second year of the Great Famine. The famine is one of the greatest man-made tragedies of the 20th Century, which killed as many as 45 million people.
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China’s ability to feed its vast and still-growing population has long been constrained by a combination of geography, resource scarcity, and structural pressures, making food security a persistent national concern rather than a settled achievement.
At the most basic level, China lacks abundant arable land relative to its population size. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s population must be supported by less than one-tenth of the world’s arable land. Much of China’s territory is unsuitable for agriculture -dominated by mountains, deserts, high plateaus, and arid or semi-arid regions. What fertile land does exist is unevenly distributed, concentrated mainly in river basins such as the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, leaving large regions dependent on food transported from afar.
Water scarcity further limits agricultural output. Northern China, where a significant portion of grain production occurs, suffers from chronic water shortages. Over-extraction of groundwater, shrinking rivers, and pollution have degraded irrigation capacity, reduced crop yields and threatened long-term sustainability. Seasonal changes have intensified these stresses through droughts, floods, and unpredictable growing seasons.
Rapid industrialization and urbanization have also eaten away at farmland. As cities expand and infrastructure grows, agricultural land is paved over or contaminated by industrial runoff and heavy metals, making it unsafe or unusable for food production. This loss is difficult to reverse, especially in densely populated regions where land is in constant competition between housing, industry, and farming.
Rising living standards have compounded the problem by changing diets. As more Chinese citizens consume meat, dairy, and processed foods, demand for grain increases indirectly, since livestock production requires far more feed than direct human consumption. This has pushed China to rely heavily on imported soybeans, corn, and other feed crops, tying domestic food security to global supply chains.
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The Chinese diet has undergone significant change over the last thirty years. There has been a marked increase in the consumption of meat and dairy, moving away from a primarily grain-based diet. This shift is associated with rising incomes and urbanization. This transition has led to increased health spending, with estimates suggesting a cost of around $14 billion due to related health issues. The dietary shift has raised concerns about sustainability and environmental impacts, and discussions on healthier and more sustainable dietary practices.
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As a result of these combined pressures, China increasingly depends on food imports to fill the gap between what it can produce and what its population consumes. While the country has avoided widespread famine in recent decades, it does so through tight state control, strategic reserves, intensive farming practices, and an extensive foreign sourcing – often stretching land and resources both domestically and abroad.
China does not lack food because of poor organization or technology alone, because its natural resource base is fundamentally strained by the sheer scale of its population. Feeding the nation remains a delicate balancing act, one that underscores how limited land, water, and environmental resilience can place even a powerful state under constant pressure.
Chairman Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in September 2013 during official visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia. The Initiative aimed to enhance global trade and infrastructure development by connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa through various economic corridors and maritime routes.
Critics of BRI describe the initiative not as a benign development program, but as a strategic vehicle for expansion, global influence, and long-term economic power. In this view, BRI’s vast network of infrastructure projects – ports, railways, highways, energy pipelines, and digital systems – was designed to extend China’s reach far beyond its borders and embed Chinese influence deep within the economic and political systems of participating countries.
Experts also argue that by financing and building critical infrastructure, China positions itself as an indispensable economic partner while gaining leverage over recipient nations. Many BRI projects rely on Chinese loans, Chinese state-owned companies, Chinese labor, and Chinese standards, tying local economies closely to Beijing. When countries struggle to repay loans, China requires strategic concessions, such as long-term port leases or preferential access to natural resources, reinforcing the perception that BRI functions as a modern form of economic dominance rather than mutual development.
BRI also serves geopolitical and military interests. Control or influence over key ports, shipping lanes, and logistics hubs strengthens China’s ability to project power globally, protect its trade routes, and challenge existing United States-led economic and security systems. Rather than world domination in the traditional military sense, BRI represents a form of “soft empire” – one built through debt, dependency, and economic integration – intended to shift the global balance of power toward China and establish it as the central hub of a new international order.
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Chairman Xi Jinping was 23 years old when Mao Zedung died in 1976, – old enough to be greatly influenced by Mao’s teachings and policies.
The Chinese Politburo agreed to allow Xi Jinping to remain president for life in March 2018. This decision was part of a constitutional amendment that removed the two-term limit for the presidency, effectively enabling Xi to consolidate his power further and extend his leadership indefinitely.
Mao Zedung’s policies continue to significantly influence current Chinese leaders. His revolutionary ideas and strategies have shaped the political landscape and governance practices in China today.
Mao’s mass political campaigns set a precedent for current leaders, who still utilize tactics to consolidate power and control public opinion.
Mao’s ideologies, particularly his thoughts on class struggle and revolutionary zeal, remain integral to the Communist Party’s narrative, influencing policy decisions and leadership styles.
Current leaders often refer to Mao’s strategies for guidance in governance and military affairs, reflecting his formidable legacy in shaping Chinese culture and national identity.
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It’s not inconceivable that China could face grave conditions leading to starvation due to several interrelated factors:
- Government enforced population decline policies could lead to labor shortages and reduced agricultural productivity.
- Economic Stagnation – current trends suggest a slowdown in economic growth, which may limit investment in agriculture and food production.
- Increasingly severe weather patterns, such as droughts and floods, can disrupt food supply chains and agricultural output, exacerbating food insecurity.
- Government Policies that are repressive may hinder effective responses to food crises, as seen in past famines where government mismanagement contributed to starvation.
- Censorship and Control – where increased censorship and repression of dissent stifle public discourse on food shortages and agricultural issues preventing timely interventions.
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History teaches us how fragile moral judgement becomes when power is centralized and resources are scarce. My hope is that no leader, now or in generations to come will ever again be placed in a position where they must decide who may eat and who must starve.
True progress is not only measured in economic growth or geopolitical influence, but in the creation of systems that prevent such tragic dilemmas from arising at all – systems that value transparency, accountability, and the dignity of every human life. The harsh lessons of the past should serve not as a blueprint, but as a warning.
James Peifer